Wednesday, January 9, 2008

A Win is a Win...But

Hillary Clinton won the New Hamphire primary....but not by much. If I were in the Clinton camp I would not be high-fiving. I suspect that they are still concerned that Hilllary has not been able to become the "people's candidate." Maybe misting up made her more "human" and less wonkish for some voters...but is that going to be enough to win the nomination? Barack Obama is still a threat and the Clinton machine knows it.

As we move into South Carolina it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Race, gender and religion on some key factors that will sway the race. Blacks make up approximately 47 percent of the voters. If Clinton goes to hard on Obama (or uses surrogates), it may strike some as having a tinge of racism and backfire...however if she goes soft, she may get trampled.

It's an interesting quandary for Hillary. But more relevant is that she still needs to shed this sense of entitlement. If she has been actively working to improve the country since her college days...that is commendable. However there are many millions of people who have also been out there fighting, so she has no rights to the job.

In a head to head with John McCain, Hillary will probably lose. Folks opposed to the war will balk, but Hillary is not for doing a Ron Paul and bringing the troops home immediately. He is also for a path to citizenship just like the Democrats. Also unlike Hillary, McCain has a long and distinguished military and Senate record to refer to. He's always been a maverick Republican, while Hillary has just jumped on the anti-establishment bandwagon.

I expect that Obama has that Zen calm that's going to make this a hard road for Hillary to conquer. Also, let's see how America's alleged Black president handles a possible real Black President. Right now he is not acting like kinfolk.